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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence wins the prize. However, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest shock.

However the current race is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions falling away and recent strugglers rising together. In an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

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